Hypotheses

What can I do? See the Election Integrity website.

Have you been able to obtain the "pure" data from the polling consortium? Data has been made available, but not the data that could be used to verify the validity of the election

Has evidence come to light since the publication of these pieces which would explain this exit poll discrepancy? No such evidence has come to light. All indications are that if the primary exit poll data were made available, it would conclusively show count corruption and identify where count corruption occurred. Unless there is some great public pressure or successful legal action, none of this primary exit poll data will be released.

Was the count accurate? There is little reason to have any confidence in the official count, and many reasons to question it.

Who actually won? Bush, of course, took office, and Kerry refused to even contest the results, so Bush "won." Independent evidence suggests, however, that had the votes been counted as cast, Kerry would have won by a large margin in the electoral college, and prevailed in the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points nationwide. Here is the handout I prepared for the American Statistical Association.

Has anyone from the Kerry campaign or the Democratic National Committee contacted you and incorporated your work in its investigation? No. Members of John Conyers' staff and contacted me, but no one from the Kerry campaign, the DNC, or any other official Democratic party post did. I wrote to Cam Kerry when he was reported to be investigating the integrity of the election, but he did not reply.

Have you forwarded your results to Senators or Congressman for investigation? Yes, I testified in a congressional forum. John Conyers used my work to call for an investigation and contestation of the electoral vote. Only a handful of congressional reps and a single senator supported him (and reportedly, it was a titanic struggle to persuade her to do so). I know many senators have read what you have, plus other materials for a book that I have written (will be published late summer).

Do you happen to know at what exit poll margin of error we, The United States, feel confident enough to declare a foreign election that we are monitoring a fraud? You should ask Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind, seems decent, honest and sincere) of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Why has no Woodward and Bernstein come forward to get this thing rolling? Perhaps because there is no contemporary Katherine Graham, the independent Washington Post editor who supported their investigation despite political pressures.

With the possible exception of WW2 this would seem to me to be the most important story in the last hundred years, if not in the history of our republic. Why is no one picking up this story? Good questions. Ask your local newspaper and let me know what they say.

Have there been ANY rebuttals to your analyses? There are many "rebuttals." They come from every angle you can think of, and many you could never think of. They are easy to find on the web. Here are the two most recent:

http://elections.ssrc.org/research/ExitPollReport031005.pdf. This is a report by reputable academics at top universities, sponsored by a reputable foundation. Its purpose seems to be to justify that (1) exit poll results should never be released until they have been "corrected" to the vote count, and (2) that the raw uncorrected data should never be released at all for methodological reasons that are not even sound methodology. (Many of us are appalled by (lack of) election reporting, but academic commentary has been no better.)

Have your papers been peer reviewed? Yes. There is no formal mechanism for papers like this (nor is there any good forum in which to publish them), but when I leave a "t" uncrossed in these papers, people write to the dean and demand my dismissal (actually, they do that anyway). The conclusions of the initial paper, in fact, has been accepted, and the "debate" has moved on.

Have you been threatened? Two different people have threatened to "call me out" (whatever that means -- both used the same terms.)

I don't really know what to make of this, but on March 23, while driving across the Ben Franklin Bridge in my family car with my daughter, the car began to vibrate fiercely. Upon crossing the bridge I got out in a freezing rain to examine the car, and learn that I had only two lug nuts holding the tire in place; the others were broken or missing. My mechanic says, "The lug nuts must have been loosened ... "

Rather than waiting for a normal maintenance check up, we took our car in for an early check-up on April 6th, and found that the breaks were no longer functioning properly.

Note for investigators if I am involved in automobile mishap: Our car is extraordinarily well-maintained, my wife has never been in an accident in her life, nor even received a ticket for a moving violation. I have not had an accident for 23 years; and it's been at least 10 years since I've received a ticket for a moving violation.

Note for investigators if some other tragedy befalls me: I am in perfect health, almost never get sick. I do not smoke, drink, or do drugs. I exercise regularly and eat a very healthy diet. I love life and would never kill myself.